Every call on this deal went well. It died on day 19.

Forecast from calls and activity · likelihood 30

Form captured. Account matched to a target segment.

New inbound. Worth qualifying.

Do this: Book discovery.

Nudge · buyer state 30

None. They asked for a meeting.

They want something. Nothing is owed either way yet, so this is a baseline and not a reading.

• they own the next step: not applicable
• it has a date: not applicable
• their last promises landed: not applicable
• it opened a door: not applicable
• they can deliver it: not applicable

Do this: Book discovery, and ask them to bring whoever else has to be convinced.

Forecast from calls and activity · likelihood 55

Call recorded and transcribed. Pain, current stack and a timeline pulled out. Marc speaks most for the buyer.

Strong discovery. Marc looks like the champion.

Do this: Send the recap with the next steps from the call.

Nudge · buyer state 60

Marc will circulate our summary internally.

His to keep, and within his reach. No date on it and no named audience.

• they own the next step: yes
• it has a date: no
• their last promises landed: not applicable
• it opened a door: no
• they can deliver it: yes

Do this: Before he circulates anything, get two names and a day out of him. Who sees this, and by when.

Forecast from calls and activity · likelihood 72

Economic buyer on the call. Budget and the operating committee mentioned. Healthy talk ratio.

Economic buyer engaged. Likelihood up.

Do this: Send the proposal while Claire is engaged.

Nudge · buyer state 80

Claire will take the business case to the operating committee.

The high point of the whole deal. The signer came in person and put an action on herself.

• they own the next step: yes
• it has a date: no
• their last promises landed: yes
• it opened a door: yes
• they can deliver it: yes

Do this: Ask Claire which committee date it goes to, and ask to be on the call for the questions. Ask while she is still in the room.

Forecast from calls and activity · likelihood 76

Proposal email opened several times, by two people.

The buyer is reading the proposal.

Do this: Follow up in three days.

Nudge · buyer state 82

Ours. We sent a document.

Every field in this event belongs to us. Our own effort is the one thing a pipeline can always manufacture.

• they own the next step: no
• it has a date: no
• their last promises landed: not applicable
• it opened a door: no
• they can deliver it: not applicable

Do this: A document buys nothing on its own. Trade it: offer to walk the committee through it before they read it alone.

Forecast from calls and activity · likelihood 76

Reply from Claire: “let me take this internally.” Positive tone.

The buyer is moving it internally.

Do this: Give Claire room, and check in next week.

Nudge · buyer state 70

Claire will take it internally.

She owns it and she can deliver it. Nothing is owed back to us on any particular day.

• they own the next step: yes
• it has a date: no
• their last promises landed: yes
• it opened a door: no
• they can deliver it: yes

Do this: Reply today and put a date on it. Shall I check back on the 14th, or does the committee sit later than that.

What it is testing. An internal review with no date has no failure mode. There is no morning on which it is late, so there is no morning on which anyone chases it.

Forecast from calls and activity · likelihood 70

Seven days without a reply from Claire. Deal warning: the buyer has gone quiet.

Engagement dropping. Worth a nudge.

Do this: Send a follow-up, or go through Marc.

Nudge · buyer state 58

Still the day 40 promise. Nothing has come back.

Seven days of one-way traffic against an open promise that nothing can chase.

• they own the next step: yes
• it has a date: no
• their last promises landed: no
• it opened a door: no
• they can deliver it: yes

Do this: Stop emailing Claire. Ask Marc in writing what happened to the committee review and when it now sits.

Forecast from calls and activity · likelihood 78

Call recorded, 22 minutes. Commitment heard: Marc will introduce the CFO.

The champion committed to an executive introduction. Likelihood recovers.

Do this: Wait for Marc's introduction, and prepare for the CFO.

Nudge · buyer state 55

Marc will introduce us to the CFO.

Undated. Two of his previous promises have already slipped, and he has never opened a door above his own line in this account.

• they own the next step: yes
• it has a date: no
• their last promises landed: no
• it opened a door: no
• they can deliver it: no

Do this: Write the introduction for him and ask him to forward it by Friday. A champion who will not send it cannot send it.

What it is testing. The same sentence is worth different amounts from different people. Read it against what this champion's last two promises did, and against whether he has ever reached above his own line here.

Forecast from calls and activity · likelihood 72

Claire declined the QBR. Fewer buyer meetings this month.

A dip, offset by Marc's activity.

Do this: Keep Marc close, and reschedule the QBR.

Nudge · buyer state 50

Nothing new. The day 40 promise is still open.

The only person who can sign has closed access while still owing us an undated step.

• they own the next step: yes
• it has a date: no
• their last promises landed: no
• it opened a door: no
• they can deliver it: yes

Do this: Two open promises and a closed door is one problem. Ask Claire whether the business case is still live, and make it easy for her to say no.

Forecast from calls and activity · likelihood 72

No call and no email today. Marc's move is not in the call data.

Nothing new on the deal. Likelihood holds.

Do this: No action flagged.

Nudge · buyer state 20

Two open commitments were his.

Both leave with him. Nobody on the buyer side owns a step in this deal any more. This is the day it died.

• they own the next step: no
• it has a date: no
• their last promises landed: no
• it opened a door: no
• they can deliver it: no

Do this: Both open commitments just left the building. Get a new owner and a new date out of Claire this week, or write the deal down.

Forecast from calls and activity · likelihood 72

No conversation with Tobias yet. His name is in no call.

No change.

Do this: Chase Marc for the CFO introduction.

Nudge · buyer state 18

None. We have never spoken to him.

The authority this deal was routed toward has changed hands. The business case has no sponsor in the seat.

• they own the next step: no
• it has a date: no
• their last promises landed: no
• it opened a door: no
• they can deliver it: no

Do this: The new CFO inherits nothing. Ask Claire for fifteen minutes with him, and expect to run the business case again from the start.

Forecast from calls and activity · likelihood 80

Inbound email with a 112-question attachment. Buyer activity spikes.

Procurement is moving. A strong signal.

Do this: Turn the questionnaire round fast.

Nudge · buyer state 12

Procurement wants 112 answers. Nothing was offered in return.

The control set is not ours. This is process traffic from an account with no sponsor attached to it.

• they own the next step: no
• it has a date: no
• their last promises landed: no
• it opened a door: no
• they can deliver it: no

Do this: Answer it against something. Happy to turn this round by Thursday, can we get thirty minutes with Tobias the week after.

What it is testing. Work arriving is not the same as a buyer moving. A questionnaire with no date back and nobody in the seat is an account clearing a checklist it has to clear for everyone.

Forecast from calls and activity · likelihood 74

A second decline from Claire. Deal warning: economic buyer disengaged.

The economic buyer is cooling. Risk noted.

Do this: Re-engage Claire before the close date.

Nudge · buyer state 10

None, twice over.

Two declines thirteen days apart, no counter-proposal either time. Access to authority is closed.

• they own the next step: no
• it has a date: no
• their last promises landed: no
• it opened a door: no
• they can deliver it: no

Do this: Ask the question that either ends it or restarts it. Has this moved to someone else, or has it stopped.

Forecast from calls and activity · likelihood 72

Longer in this stage than similar deals. Warning raised, with others this week.

Stalled. At risk.

Do this: Re-engage, and confirm the timeline.

Nudge · buyer state 10

Still none.

Forty-five days in this stage and not one dated obligation has sat on their side of it.

• they own the next step: no
• it has a date: no
• their last promises landed: no
• it opened a door: no
• they can deliver it: no

Do this: Re-engaging is what we have been doing for forty-five days. Take it off the forecast and work the account as new.

Forecast from calls and activity · likelihood 80

A new stakeholder on the thread. Three buyer contacts active this month.

Multithreading improved. Best reading in a month.

Do this: Answer Ines quickly, and bring her into the next call.

Nudge · buyer state 8

They want an answer on data residency. No date, nothing offered in return.

A criterion introduced on day 90 by someone absent from every discovery call, and it is not in our scope. That is a comparison grid being filled in.

• they own the next step: no
• it has a date: no
• their last promises landed: no
• it opened a door: no
• they can deliver it: no

Do this: Ask who else is answering the same question and what the deadline is. If neither answer comes back, we are the reference quote.

What it is testing. A requirement that arrives this late, from someone who was not in discovery, is usually being collected on behalf of a decision that is already leaning somewhere.

Forecast from calls and activity · likelihood 78

Short call recorded. Procurement review named as the next step.

Recent buyer contact. On track for procurement.

Do this: Send procurement what they need.

Nudge · buyer state 8

The next step is ours again. Procurement reverts when it reverts.

Ninety-three days in and not one dated obligation has ever sat on their side.

• they own the next step: no
• it has a date: no
• their last promises landed: no
• it opened a door: no
• they can deliver it: no

Do this: Nothing here is ours to move. Say that in the forecast and spend the hour on a deal with a dated step on the buyer's side.

Forecast from calls and activity · likelihood 35

Close date passed with no signature.

Slipped. Likelihood drops.

Do this: Push the close date, and re-engage.

Nudge · buyer state 5

Nothing left to test.

Every commitment here was undated, unowned, or made by someone who could not deliver it. All three were true on day 19.

• they own the next step: no
• it has a date: no
• their last promises landed: no
• it opened a door: no
• they can deliver it: no

Do this: Do not push the date. Run the loss review from day 19, and go looking for the same three failures across the rest of the book.