€456,000 in commit. €192,000 of it has a buyer behind it.
Eight deals a CRO would carry into a Q4 forecast, read two ways. Clari, now part of Salesloft, rolls up the reps' calls and checks them against activity. Nudge asks one thing of each deal: does someone on the buyer's side owe us a step, on a date they named.
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Where Clari's approach is right: a clean roll-up of every rep's call, inspected deal by deal, beats a spreadsheet. On Halcyon and Oakhurst it agrees with Nudge, and says so for the same reason.
We have not run Clari on this pipeline. The left side is our model of the approach it describes, in the words quoted here; its real output will differ. The eight deals are a composite. The accounts are invented, the patterns are not. No customer data is on this page.
Eight deals, read two ways, on 1 October.
Rows where the two readings part are marked. A deal Nudge calls Closes has someone on the buyer's side who owes us a step, on a date they named.
| Deal | Their category | Nudge |
|---|---|---|
| Halcyon€120,000 · Negotiation | CommitHigh activity. The AI forecast agrees. | ClosesThe CFO asked for the order form on 22 September. Signature planned for the week of 16 November. |
| Marrow€64,000 · Proposal | CommitEngagement steady: the rep emails weekly. | SlipsThe buyer checked out the week of 7 September: two meetings declined, no new date. |
| Pilcrow€48,000 · Security review | Best caseLow activity this month. | ClosesSecurity review opened on 15 September with a named sponsor. Review meeting set by them for 2 December. |
| Vantrell€90,000 · Proposal | CommitHigh activity: eleven emails this month. | Never aliveOnly our side has written since 2 September. Nothing has ever been owed by theirs. |
| Oakhurst€72,000 · Negotiation | CommitHealthy. | ClosesProcurement owes the redlines by 10 October, and delivered the last two on time. |
| Kirbeck€38,000 · Pilot | PipelineLow activity. Out of the forecast. | ClosesQuiet, but the buyer owes the pilot review on 21 October and picked that date themselves. |
| Brackwell€110,000 · Proposal | CommitActivity rising: procurement questionnaire received. | SlipsThe sponsor left the week of 15 September. The questionnaire that arrived since has nobody behind it. |
| Lowerby€56,000 · Proposal | Best caseActivity steady. | At riskA dated step on 30 October, owned by a champion who missed his last two. |
What each side is reading.
The difference is what backs a deal. Activity backs Vantrell and Brackwell here, and most of it is ours or procurement's. Meanwhile two quiet deals outside commit, worth €86,000, have a buyer who owes us a dated step.
Nudge next to the tools you already have.
Each page puts one approach next to Nudge on the same deal or the same pipeline. Where the other approach is right, the page says so.
The original comparison: a CRM with a model on top, on one deal.
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